Global smartphone shipments fell 22% year over year (YoY) to 255.3 million in Q3 2026, down from 327.3 million, IDC says in its preliminary count. That’s the steepest drop for any quarter on IDC’s books.
IDC blames what it calls the AI-led memory crisis. Nabila Popal, a senior research director at IDC, says memory costs have surged about 350% since last year and are still rising. The increases are slowing, she says: a low double-digit rise in the third quarter over the second, after jumps of roughly 50% to 100% a quarter before that. Other key parts cost more too.
Popal also says “the worst is yet to come,” and that the market hasn’t reached the bottom yet. IDC expects growth to stay constrained through 2027 and pushes any recovery to 2028 at the least.
Samsung kept the top spot with 57.8 million phones and 22.6% of the market. Apple shipped 57.3 million for 22.4%, about half a million phones behind: close, but outside the 0.1-point gap IDC counts as a statistical tie. Both shipped fewer phones than a year ago, down 5.8% and 4.0%, and still took a bigger share.
The Chinese brands took the beating. Xiaomi shipped 29.2% fewer phones, Oppo 34.5% fewer and Vivo 31.5% fewer, as the table below shows. Francisco Jeronimo, a vice president at IDC, says their exposure to cheap phones forces them to choose between protecting margins and defending volume, just as demand weakens.
| Company | Q3 2026 shipments | Q3 2026 share | Q3 2025 shipments | Q3 2025 share | Change, year over year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 57.8 | 22.6% | 61.4 | 18.7% | −5.8% |
| Apple | 57.3 | 22.4% | 59.7 | 18.2% | −4.0% |
| Xiaomi | 30.7 | 12.0% | 43.4 | 13.2% | −29.2% |
| Oppo | 25.6 | 10.0% | 39.1 | 11.9% | −34.5% |
| Vivo | 19.1 | 7.5% | 27.9 | 8.5% | −31.5% |
| Others | 64.8 | 25.4% | 96.0 | 29.3% | −32.5% |
| Total | 255.3 | 100.0% | 327.3 | 100.0% | −22.0% |
Counterpoint’s count, out first, put the drop at 20%, though both firms have Samsung first and Apple a close second. In China alone, IDC had shipments down 15.4%.
Jeronimo says the pressure is now moving from phone makers to buyers, and many are keeping their phones longer as higher prices reach the shelf. If you can’t put off buying one, Kiranjeet Kaur, an associate research director at IDC, says holiday-quarter deals are likely a better bet than waiting for prices to ease.
What’s your take? Are you upgrading your phone this year, or are you keeping it? Let us know in the comments.
